In terms of its impact on global geopolitics, the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by the People’s Republic of China, is nothing short of seismic.
In March, high-ranking security officials from both countries met in Beijing under Chinese auspices and, to the utter shock of most followers of global politics, announced that they were re-establishing diplomatic relations that had been severed after a series of unfortunate events in 2016. The deal was sealed when the foreign ministers of both states met again in Beijing, earlier this month.
Three key lessons can be drawn from the Saudi-Iranian détente: first, that the United States’ influence in the Middle East is rapidly waning; second, that Chinese diplomacy is expanding and becoming more noticeable in unexpected places; and third, that Pakistan can take advantage of these opportunities if it plays its cards right and organises its own chaotic internal affairs.
A toxic past and hazy boundaries
The total poisonousness of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the lead-up to the Beijing summit is a major factor in the world’s amazement at the news of the restoration of ties between Riyadh and Tehran. While a lot of Western mainstream media and some Western academics portray the Saudi-Iranian conflict as a “cosmic” Shia-Sunni or Arab-Ajam conflict occurring from the beginning of time, the truth is a little more nuanced.
While it is true that sect and ethnicity play a role in the conflict, and this will be examined in especially in the context of Pakistan, it may be argued that the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is primarily geopolitical. Saudi Arabia had been solidly aligned with the US up until this point, while Iran had departed the US-led group following the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The two major Gulf states have been engaged in proximate conflict through fundamentally divergent geopolitical trajectories since 1979.
However, we should emphasise that the Palestinian resistance organisation Hamas, a Sunni organisation, is in the Iranian side to demonstrate how sectarian and ethnic lines are muddled in this battle. On Jumma-tul-Wida [the last Friday of Ramazan], in the form of Yaum Al-Quds [Al Quds Day], which dates back to the era of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — the spiritual father of Iran’s revolution — himself, the loudest and most organised pro-Palestine demonstrations are held globally under Iranian auspices.
The Shia-majority country of Azerbaijan, which is close to Israel and ultimately the US, has tense if not openly hostile relations with Iran. Furthermore, during the Arab Spring, when protests against Bashar Al Assad’s government erupted with support from the West and other Arab nations, Persian Iran stepped in to support Arab Syria. It suffices to say that without the military support of Iran and Russia, Assad would not have likely survived the uprising.
Resuming our discussion of Saudi-Iran ties, the main rift occurred in 2016 with Riyadh’s execution of Saudi Shia preacher Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. The late preacher was politically engaged in the oil-rich, predominantly Shia east of the kingdom and was a vociferous opponent of the House of Saud. The execution in Iran sparked a significant response, as rioters attacked Saudi embassies in Tehran and the sacred city of Mashhad. Although there were some strained relationships before the execution, things went downhill pretty fast afterward.
For instance, the real force behind the Saudi kingdom, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), in 2017 compared Hitler to Iran’s Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei and discussed waging “the battle” within Iran. The Iranian foreign ministry called MBS “immature” in response to the Hitler jab and urged him to consider the fate of other Middle Eastern autocrats.
The tone change and circumspect smiles on Saudi and Iranian lips in Beijing, given the aforementioned poison, indicate a significant turnaround in Middle Eastern geopolitics. What exactly changed so drastically that two states that had been at daggers drawn until very recently were suddenly discussing peace and Islamic brotherhood begs the question.
The belief that Pax Americana, at least locally if not globally, was in decline and that the Middle Eastern governments would have to solve their issues on their own may have been one of the driving forces behind the détente, especially for the Saudis.
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Loss of the Pax Americana?
The drone assaults on Aramco’s oil installations in Abqaiq and Khurais in 2019 may have served as a significant wake-up call for Riyadh. The strikes, which targeted vital oil infrastructure, dealt the Saudis a fatal blow. Despite the Houthi group in Yemen, which supports Iran, claiming credit for the strikes, it was widely believed that the operation was more likely the work of Iranian-backed militants in Iraq.
Regardless of where the assaults originated, Washington and Riyadh were in agreement that Iran was responsible. Nevertheless, the US did nothing to confront Iran while President Donald Trump was in office while maintaining a web of military outposts in the area.
This undoubtedly caused those who matter in Riyadh to reevaluate their reliance on Uncle Sam, along with Trump’s earlier statement that the Saudi king would not last “two weeks” without the protection of the American military apparatus.
There has been no improvement under Joe Biden. As a presidential candidate, the US president pledged to demonise Saudi Arabia in the wake of the barbaric killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey. Despite not quite making good on his threat, Biden’s trip to the kingdom in August of last year wasn’t particularly successful.
The Saudis didn’t exactly extend the traditional red carpet greeting to visiting American presidents, as was customary. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has defied American demands about the crisis in Russia and Ukraine. Last month, the Saudi foreign minister visited Moscow, and based on all indications, it was a friendly visit. Additionally, the US described the Opec+ agreement to reduce oil production and hike prices earlier this month as “inadvisable”.
Of course, this does not imply that Saudi Arabia and other nations that have long-standing defence and political ties to the US are severing ties with Washington. However, it is very certain that Riyadh and other Gulf states are hedging their bets and getting ready for a scenario in which the United States isn’t the only player in town.
Enter China
The fact that China assisted in brokering the Saudi-Iran peace agreement is another important feature. China has largely played a minor role in the Middle East in the modern age. Therefore, achieving peace between two of the most acrimonious rivals in the region was viewed as a significant diplomatic success for Beijing. Brazilian journalist and author Pepe Escobar referred to the development as a “Chinese win-win” in a piece published in The Cradle.
The desire for stability in important Gulf energy markets and Beijing’s desire to help Chinese President Xi Jinping realise his vision of China-led Eurasian integration under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a part, appear to have influenced Beijing’s apparent interest in brokering the deal.
China, at least insofar as the Middle East is concerned, does not carry any colonial or imperial baggage, which is another reason it must have won over both Riyadh and Tehran. China, in contrast to the US, has neither tried regime change in the area or surrounded Iran with a ring of military outposts.
A neutral player in the Arab-Israeli peace process (or whatever is left of that failed experiment), the US could not, in fact, have been an impartial broker in the Saudi-Iran confrontation. Since 1979, relations between the US and Iran have been at odds openly, and the Trump administration’s unilateral decision to exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, often known as the Iran nuclear agreement, convinced influential people in Tehran that the US cannot be trusted.
China’s expanding influence in the region seems to have taken the Americans by surprise. The CIA director reportedly told MBS, according to The Wall Street Journal, that the US had been “blindsided” by the Saudis’ reconciliation with Iran and Syria.
international order changes
This mirrors a broader seismic shift in the global order, where, as previously indicated, American unipolarity is waning and a new multipolar system, led by Russia and China and supported by the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), is emerging.
In actuality, the US/European post-World War II “order based on rules” was beginning to fall apart when Russia invaded Ukraine last year. Although the Russian invasion of a sovereign state was despicable, Moscow believed that Nato, the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, was closing in on it and was pounding on its doors.
And despite sympathising with Ukraine, the majority of the Global South refused to accept the Western narrative that this was an existential conflict between democracy and despotism.
Another clear indication that the West-led international system is in danger is China’s interference in Middle Eastern diplomatic affairs. Furthermore, the petrodollar is under grave danger as a result of major energy companies’ consideration of trading in the Chinese yuan. Escobar claims that the era of the petroyuan is now upon us because “the high-speed de-dollarisation train has already left the station” and because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have decided to sign energy contracts in the Chinese currency.
It’s interesting to note that during a recent visit to China, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva agreed to trade in both the Chinese and Brazilian currencies, adamantly questioning why every nation needed to be dependent on the dollar for commerce.
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Can Pakistan Benefit?
Of course, the question for Pakistan is whether it can gain from the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
This is especially crucial because Pakistan has deep and strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and China, two of the main players in this joint production. Iran is also a neighbour, but Pakistan hasn’t been able to fully establish bilateral relations with Tehran out of concern for Saudi Arabia and the United States.
But first, let’s take a quick look at the effects of the Riyadh-Tehran competition on Pakistan before we consider the barriers to improved relations and the opportunities a Saudi-Iranian peace deal presents.
Many people have hypothesised, in an oversimplified way, that Pakistan is just a front in the Saudi-Iranian sectarian proxy conflict. This is only partially true because, as was previously noted, the Saudi-Iran rivalry is primarily geopolitical, despite the fact that there is also a clear sectarian component, and this country is directly affected by events in the Middle East.
But why is Pakistan more affected by the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran than, say, Indonesia or Mali?
relations on a heart level
Maybe geography, philosophy, and demographics hold the key. The fact that the Hejaz region of Saudi Arabia is home to the two holiest cities in Islam has a profound emotional and spiritual impact on most Pakistanis. Since there are doctrinal differences between the schools of thought practised in the kingdom and Pakistan, any criticism of the Saudi state is seen as criticism of the guardians of the sacred sites.
Although Sunni majorities are found in both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the majority of Saudi Arabian Sunnis follow the Hanbali/Salafi and Shafi’i schools, whereas the majority of Sunnis in Pakistan follow the Deobandi and Barelvi sub-sects of the Hanafi school.
On the other hand, Pakistan boasts one of the largest groups of Shia Isna Asharis, who adhere to the official philosophical tradition of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Because of this, Iran is still regarded as a “defender” of Shias and Shia causes, even though many Pakistani Shias do not adhere to the wilayat-i-faqih theory (the fundamental ideology of revolutionary Iran as professed by Ayatollah Khomeini) and do not view Ayatollah Khamenei as their marja-i-taqleed (object of emulation).
Given the aforementioned factors, Pakistanis of various ideologies are affected by political developments in both states. For instance, the response from religious parties was wholly unfavourable when the National Assembly passed a resolution in 2015 against taking part in the Saudi-led assault of Yemen aimed at the Houthis (who are Zaydi Shias). At a “Difa-i-Harmain” gathering in Islamabad, dignitaries urged the government to send soldiers to defend Saudi Arabia and shield it from any Houthi threats.
Similarly, a sizable procession of men, women, and children marched up to the US consulate in Karachi to protest the killing when the US killed senior Iranian military commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike in Iraq.
The general, who was in charge of defending the sacred sites in Iraq and Syria from the so-called Islamic State and other terrorist organisations, was regarded as a mudafi-i-haram (defender of the sacred).
Given the sway that Saudi Arabia and Iran exert over Pakistan’s Sunni and Shia populations, the reconciliation of the two regional giants may help to defuse tensions between the country’s many ethnic groups. At the very least, it is hoped that peace in the Gulf will make it more difficult for the homicidal sectarian organisations to operate freely in our nation, which they have done up until very recently.
economic advantages
If the Saudi-Iran détente deepens, Pakistan may benefit economically in addition to matters of faith.
The gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan is one of the significant initiatives that might gain. While Iran has completed its section of the pipeline, Pakistan has not. If the pipeline is not completed by the end of next year, Pakistan will be subject to a severe $18 billion fine.
Our side’s work has evidently stagnated out of concern for provoking the Saudis and inviting American penalties. Given that Riyadh is now expressing interest in enhancing its trade relations with Iran, Pakistan should be able to persuade the Saudis.
Regarding American sanctions, Pakistan must make a strong argument that Iran trade should not be prohibited since other countries in the region (such as India) can conduct business with a sanctioned Russia. If the price is right, Iranian gas might help Pakistan address chronic shortages that have already started to affect the home consumer. Pakistan is in desperate need of reasonably priced hydrocarbons.
The Saudis’ apparent interest in building an oil refinery in Gwadar is another project that could be pursued. Despite the fact that Iran may be cautious of a Saudi facility being built less than 100 kilometres from their border with Pakistan, Islamabad can argue that the project poses no threat to Tehran given the current geopolitical situation. Additionally, China will be anxious to connect its new Silk Roads, its trade and energy routes, with the Gulf, and Pakistan can play a significant part in these connections due to its geographic location.
The treasury, the opposition, and the establishment must all be on the same page when it comes to pursuing proactive geo-economic and geopolitical relations in the region if Pakistan is to benefit from the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran and China’s commercial aspirations.
Major foreign policy decisions shouldn’t be altered when the administration of a country changes, and the leaders of this nation should reject international pressure and put Pakistan’s interests first.
Threats and benefits
The peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran has enormous potential for both countries, the larger Middle East, and the larger Eurasian continent. But the long-standing animosity between Riyadh and Tehran is unlikely to vanish suddenly. If China continues to make efforts to keep both parties on board, the peace process will go slowly but steadily.
However, there will be plenty of spoilers. For instance, the US is undoubtedly unhappy and has been grumbling in public while casting doubt on China’s involvement in bringing the cross-Gulf competitors together. Israel is also quite dissatisfied with the regional trends. For the time being, the Saudi-Iran peace agreement has thwarted Israeli attempts to persuade the Arab world to encircle and eventually invade Iran.
Given Tel Aviv’s proficiency and proclivity for covert operations, it would not be incorrect to assume that Israel will make every effort to undermine the agreement reached in Beijing. Both the Saudis and the Iranians need to be cautious about this.
However, if normalisation proceeds quickly, it will bring peace to a region that has been devastated by violence. Yemen, for instance, which has been destroyed by years of conflict, might start the process of healing. A durable truce and peace proposal encompassing all Yemeni factions can potentially materialise soon with the support of Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi officials have already met with representatives of the Houthis.
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In addition to being battlegrounds for Saudi-Iranian antagonism, Iraq and Syria have also been ravaged by Western-led wars of occupation and regime change, respectively. Recently, the Syrian foreign minister visited Jeddah, signaling the start of Damascus’ rehabilitation as an Arab power. Meanwhile, Iraq is said to have played a key role in hosting Saudi-Iranian negotiations prior to the breakthrough in Beijing. Bahrain and Lebanon could gain if Saudi Arabia and Iran emphasize the need of Muslim unity.
The Middle East has been plagued by colonial intrigue, internal power struggles, and a nearly continual lack of stability since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The area now has the chance to banish the ghosts of the past and strive towards a shared, prosperous future after around a century of unrest.
This won’t be simple because significant issues, like Palestine’s freedom, still need to be handled. However, it’s possible that the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with a little assistance from their Chinese allies, will portend brighter times for the area and the Eurasian region as a whole.
