Following the ongoing heatwave, a prominent private weather forecasting firm, Weather Updates PK, forecasts a significant pre-monsoon rain spell. The present weather conditions, influenced by potent pre-monsoon currents interacting with Western influences, are projected to usher in heavy rain and thunderstorms across various regions in Pakistan, according to Jawad Memon, the company’s weather analyst.
Memon’s medium-range forecast pinpoints regions, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, Punjab, upper Sindh, and upper and western Balochistan as the areas expected to be impacted by the impending weather system. From June 25th to June 28th, these regions could witness substantial rainfall and thunderstorms. A more detailed update regarding this weather system is expected to be released soon.
Turning to the longer-term outlook, the forecast indicates a moderate likelihood of the first monsoon spell impacting southeastern Sindh, including Karachi, in late June or early July.
An area of low pressure forming over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days, following the east-west shear zone, could reach Indian Rajasthan, Gujarat, and adjoining southeastern regions of Sindh, as per recent weather patterns and long-range analysis. Moreover, another low-pressure zone is projected to form over the Bay of Bengal in the first week of July, potentially interacting with the previous system due to a favorable shear zone.
This confluence of systems, bolstered by an active North Arabian Sea offshore trough, could culminate in the creation of a well-marked low-pressure area (UAC) or a monsoon trough (MTC) near Gujarat. This would provide further support for the nearby low-pressure area.
It’s crucial to remember, however, that this is a long-range forecast, and weather patterns are inherently changeable. Meteorologists will continue to track the situation vigilantly, providing updates as needed.
People residing in the affected regions of Pakistan are urged to stay abreast of the latest weather forecasts and to adhere to any warnings or precautions issued by relevant authorities. This will aid in ensuring their safety and in mitigating potential disruptions caused by the expected weather systems.
